Russia’s major offensive planned by one-year anniversary of invasion, top security official warns

Russia is planning a major offensive against Kyiv by the one-year anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov told Radio Free Europe Friday. 

“Now they are preparing for maximum activation, taking into account the fact that these are people from the ‘scoop’, and they believe that by the anniversary they should have some achievements. It is no secret that they are preparing for a new wave by February 24,” Danilov said.

Ukrainian soldiers are seen on their ways to frontlines with their armoured military vehicles as the strikes continue on the Donbass frontline, during Russia and Ukraine war in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on Jan. 24, 2023. 
(Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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Ukraine and Western defense officials have repeatedly warned that Russia is planning a wave offensive in an attempt to turn the tide in the war. 

But details surrounding the looming offensive have remained unclear.

Danilov reportedly said that first Russia will look to secure the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where the most brutal warfare continues to take place in an area known as the Donbas. 

According to the National Security official, Russia has also been scouting Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia region, parts of which have been retaken by Ukrainian forces. 

“And now there is a certain accumulation of troops. We know this, we understand what is happening in the Russian Federation in this regard,” Danilov said.

The U.S. and Germany agreed to send Ukraine urgently needed tanks for its troops on the front lines – opening the way for other nations like Poland to send their own German-made Leopard 2 tanks from its stockpiles. 

A convoy of Ukrainian forces drives to Debaltseve, Donetsk region.
(ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

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Though the U.S.’s agreement to send Abrams M1 tanks was made with the understanding that it will take several months to get Ukrainian troops trained up on the sophisticated equipment, concerns remain high that Europe’s tanks contribution could also take too long. 

Poland on Friday announced it would send 60 tanks in addition to Germany’s pledge to send 88 tanks, though Berlin said that just 14 – one company’s worth – would be initially sent over. 

Warsaw said it would also send 14 of its Leopard 2 tanks along with 30 of its PT-91 Polish-made battle tanks, which first entered the service in the 90s, reported Reuters.

Ukrainian soldiers are seen on their ways to frontlines with their armoured military vehicles as the strikes continue on the Donbass frontline, during Russia and Ukraine war in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on Jan. 24, 2023. 
(Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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But despite Poland’s immediate proximity to Ukraine, the shipment of tanks is still expected to take three months before Warsaw’s supply of Leopard tanks hits Ukraine’s battlefield – well beyond the looming anniversary less than a month away. 

Tanks deliveries have also been pledged by the U.K., France, Norway and Canada.